Topic 1: Presidential Election

We picked the winner, and came close on the electoral score board. President Elect Obama won Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, as we predicted. He also won Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri. We thought Obama would ring up 322 electoral votes; he outpaced that with 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. Where we got it wrong was Florida. We picked McCain to squeak it out, but instead Obama won with 51 percent, 4,274,370 votes, to McCain's 48.2 percent, 4,039,848 votes.

Obama won Florida in the early vote taking, what looks likes to us, as much as a 300,000 vote lead into Election Day. For the first time, Democrats turned out new or low performing voters in early voting instead of just turning out their super voters (who would have voted on Election Day anyway) as they have in years past.

BOTTOM LINE: Obama won his campaign in Florida and in America for five reasons.

First, he was disciplined. He stuck to his message and made few mistakes.

Second, he stole the center-right taking issues like taxes ("John McCain will tax your health insurance") away from the Republican candidate. He even shored up his weaknesses on issues like gun rights by running ads in conservative north Florida touting his defense of the Second Amendment.

Third, he had overwhelming resources. Obama spent $250 million nationwide on TV, spending $8.9 million on TV in Miami, another $7 million on TV in Tampa, and anywhere from a whopping $39-75 millions statewide (reports vary). He had 600 paid staffers in Florida. The total spending of the McCain Campaign combined with the Republican National Committee came in at $26 million. When was the last time a Republican candidate for President was outspent and won?

Fourth, he ran an impressive ground game using new technology and social networking to mobilize the vote, especially the youth vote.

Fifth, he was lucky. Obama fought his opponent on the worst playing field for a Republican since Watergate (an unpopular second term president of the same party, an unpopular war, a recession, and the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression). Almost any Democratic candidate for President this year would have won, having won the primary. John McCain was sailing into enormous head winds. And that is really the story--the primary. When historians review this race what they will find most remarkable is not that Barak Obama beat John McCain, but that he beat Hillary Clinton

Topic 2: Congressional Races

CD 8: Alan Grayson (D) vs. Ric Keller (R): We predicted Keller to win this one in a very close race, he did not. While the Obama vote did not trickle far down the ticket, it did reach some congressional races and this was one of them. Obama did surprisingly well in Central Florida. Grayson defeated Keller 52 percent to 48 percent.

CD 13: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D): Buchanan defeated Jennings 55.5 percent to 37.5 percent. We got this one right.

CD 16: Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Tom Rooney (R): Rooney defeated Mahoney 60.1 percent to 39.9 percent. We got this one right too.

CD 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Raul Martinez (D): Diaz-Balart defeated Martinez 57.9 percent to 42.1 percent. Another one we scored correctly.

CD 24: Tom Feeney (R) vs. Susanne Kosmas (D): Kosmas defeated Feeney 41.1 percent to 57.2 percent. We called this one right.

CD 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Joe Garcia (D): Diaz-Balart defeated Garcia 53 percent to 47 percent. We got this one wrong, but we are happy we did. Congrats, Mario.

BOTTOM LINE: Republicans end up with a one-seat loss, decreasing the Republican majority in Florida's Congressional Delegation from 16 to 15 of 25 members. However, Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and Bill Young both wielded over 60 percent of the vote in Tampa - an area Obama carried. Obama also carried Miami-Dade, where Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart both fended off credible, well-funded candidates financially backed by the Democrat Congressional Candidates Committee. These victories in a tough year for the GOP give credence to the notion that while Obama carried Florida's 27 electoral votes, the electorate of the Sunshine Swing State supported Republicans down the ballot.

Topic 3: State Senate - Balance of Power Unchanged

SD 19: Belinda Ortiz (R) vs. Gary Siplin (D): Siplin won by one point, 50.5 percent, to 49.5 percent in a tough loss for the GOP. This year was the Republican's best chance to pick up this seat, but that said, the district is only 19 percent Republican. Ortiz was a great candidate who ran a stellar campaign. We got this one wrong, and may have been thinking a little with our hearts instead of our heads.

SD 23: Nancy Detert (R) vs. Morgan Bentley (D): Detert wins 58.3 percent to 41.7 percent. We got this one right.

SD 24: Thad Altman (R) vs. Kendall Moore (D): Altman wins 58.6 percent to 41.4 percent. We called this one correctly.

BOTTOM LINE: The balance of the State Senate remains the same 26 R, 14 D, a relief to Democrats as the loss of Gary Siplin would have given the Republicans a two-thirds majority - and therefore, additional control over administrative and legislative functions of the chamber.

Topic 4: State House -"The Spirit of 76"-House at 76 Republicans, 44 Democrats

HD 9: Peter Boulware (R) vs. Michelle Rehwinkle Vasilinda (D): This race came down to 440 votes with Vasilinda eaking out the win. We missed this one.

HD 11: Debbie Boyd (D) vs. Liz Porter (R): Only 158 votes separate Porter from Boyd, with Boyd having the lead. This race is in an automatic machine recount.

HD 32: Steve Crisafulli (R) vs. Tony Sasso (D): Crisfulli wins 52.2 percent to 47.8 percent. Gain for Republicans, but the gain is somewhat neutral, as the GOP won back a traditionally Republicans seat temporarily lost in a special election to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of former State Representative Bob Allen. We got this one right.

HD 83: Carl Domino (R) vs. Bryan Miller (D): Domino wins, 52 percent to 48 percent. Domino pulled this one out, and in so doing surprised many, including us. We go this one wrong.

BOTTOM LINE: The GOP lost a seat previously held by Representative Will Kendrick when Democrat Leonard Bembry defeated Don Curtis 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent. All in all, the balance of power in the House is the same (unless Porter finds 159 votes in the recount).

Topic 5: Constitutional Amendments

Amendment 1 - Property Rights/Ineligible Aliens: Failed, only 47.9 percent approved. The only explanation for failure is that the measure was too confusing. We got this one wrong.

Amendment 2 - Defense of Marriage Act: Passed, 61.9 percent approved. We got this one right. Republicans plus African American voters put this one over the top.

Amendment 3 - Improvements not affecting the assessed value of personal property: Passed, 60.5% approved. We got this one right.

Amendment 4 - Property tax exemption of perpetually conserved land: Passed, 68.6 percent approved. We thought this would miss for being too confusing, but it passed.

Amendment 6 - Assessment of working waterfront property based upon current use: Passed, 70.6 percent approved. For the same reason, we missed this one too.

Amendment 8 - Local Option Community College Funding: Failed, only 43.5 percent approved. We did not think a tax increase would pass, and it didn't.

BOTTOM LINE: When it comes to constitutional amendments, Floridian voted conservatively, passing all amendments that dealt with cutting taxes, opposing the only amendment that could have increased taxes, and voting to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

THE BIG BOTTOM LINE: Florida is still a swing state. Although Senator Obama carried the top of the ticket, the vast majority of the down ballot races retained Republican majorities, and the amendments passed reflect more conservative values than liberal. Taken as a whole the political landscape of Florida did not change, which means Senator Obama's campaign team deserves enormous credit for winning Florida. 

Question of the Week

How will President-Elect Obama's tax initiatives affect my individual taxes if they are enacted as proposed and how can I plan for them?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Broward County Sheriff

Scott Israel (D) vs. Al Lamberti (R): In the most stunning win of any on Election Day, Republican Sheriff Al Lamberti won election with 51.05 percent and a margin of 14,127 votes. In a county that gave Senator Obama a more than 244,000 vote advantage (more than the state margin of victory!), a Republican won county wide.

Gun Sales

In a troubled economy, there's one industry that is seeing an increase in sales - Although Florida does not keep records of gun sales, federal data show background checks needed to purchase a firearm are up sharply in the first nine months of this year. In Florida, concealed weapon permit applications in September also jumped 52 percent compared with September 2007. Handguns and semiautomatic weapons, not hunting rifles, appear to be leading the way. The reasons: a sour economy that some fear will increase crime, and worries about gun regulations from an Obama presidency. Read more here.

Job Numbers

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor announced that 240,000 jobs were lost in the month of October. The federal unemployment rate increased from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, and represents the highest rate in 14 years. Florida's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October should be out next week. In September, Florida's rate came in at 6.6 percent, representing 613,000 jobless out of a labor force of 9,338,000. The unemployment rate remains the same as the revised August rate of 6.6 percent and is up 2.4 percentage points from the September 2007 rate. Florida's August and September 2008 unemployment rates are the highest since October 1994, which was also 6.6 percent.

Topic 1: Presidential Race

A Mason-Dixon poll released Saturday shows Obama up by 2 points in Florida, a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll shows McCain up by 1. McCain is in Tampa today. Palin stopped in New Port Richey, Lakeland and Ocala on Saturday. Biden campaigned in Daytona and Tallahassee yesterday, and Obama is scheduled to appear in Jacksonville today. Early voting suggests that Obama will take a lead into Election Day here in Florida, so McCain will have to win the Election Day vote.

Prediction: Winner Obama. McCain should carry Florida in a nail bitter, but Obama will carry the nation winning: Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Missouri, Virginia, and Ohio are too close to call. Even if McCain wins all three, he will fall short.

Bonus Prediction: Electoral Vote Count: Obama 322; McCain 216.

Topic 2: Congressional Races to Watch

CD 8: Alan Grayson (D) vs. Ric Keller (R): Ric Keller won in 2006 by eight points in one of the worst election years for Republicans in recent memory (until this year). The district has better Republican turnout in presidential years, and this is North Central Florida, so even the Democrats are conservative. Alan Grayson, an attorney who has built his campaign on his fight against Iraq War contractors, was recently sanctioned by a federal judge. That said, Keller barely made it out of the primary. This will be very close. Prediction: Keller.

CD 24: Tom Feeney (R) vs. Susanne Kosmas (D): Despite Kosmas' liberal voting record in the Florida Legislature, former Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney has had a rough cycle. Feeney has represented the district well, protecting jobs and funding for the Space Industry, but his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff will likely do him in this year. Prediction: Kosmas.

CD13: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D): In a rematch of 2006, a campaign where Jennings disputed the result and asked the U.S. House of Representatives to overturn the election, the two familiar opponents are at it again. What looked to be a close race has widened. Buchanan's has a double digit lead in the polls, but look for a narrower win by Buchanan. Prediction: Buchanan

CD 16: Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Tom Rooney (R): Watch out for Karma! After a sex scandal by then incumbent Mark Foley propelled Tim Mahoney into Congress in 2006, an in-depth ABC investigation revealed that now Congressman Mahoney engaged in an affair with a woman he helped lobby, and another congressional/campaign staffer he paid over $100,000 to silence. GOP candidate Tom Rooney is a former army lawyer, instructor at West Point, and Assistant Attorney General under then-Attorney General Crist. The Democratic Party and its fundraisers dropped their support of Mahoney weeks ago. Prediction: Rooney.

CD 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Raul Martinez (D): Changing demographics of South Florida's Cuban population are making this race, and the race in CD 25 (below), very close. Democratic candidate and former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, however, has too much baggage to ride the wave to Washington. As major of Hialeah, Martinez was indicted on eight counts of racketeering and seven counts of extortion. Lincoln will squeak this one out. Prediction: Lincoln Diaz-Balart

CD 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Joe Garcia (D): As Time Magazine reported Friday, since 2006, new voter registration has leapt 24 percent for Democrats in the 25th district versus 6 percent for the GOP (with similar gains in the 21st District). Just as important, independent voter registration has expanded 18 percent in the 25th (also similar in the 21st). Garcia has garnered strong support, especially from transplanted and second-generation Cuban-Americans, who have traditionally voted Republican. Garcia is also director of the politically influential Cuban American National Foundation, as well as chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. In watershed political cycles, the good are sometimes washed out with the bad. This one will also be very close. Prediction: Garcia

Topic 3: State Senate Races to Watch

SD 19: Belinda Ortiz (R) vs. Gary Siplin (D): First-time Senate candidate Belinda Ortiz is a Puerto Rican small business owner. Gary Siplin is an incumbent Democrat whose multiple brushes with the law have been widely publicized. Ortiz would be the first Hispanic woman from Central Florida to be elected to the Florida Senate. In a district that is less that 20 percent Republican, an Ortiz win could be the biggest upset of the cycle. Prediction: Ortiz.

SD 23: Nancy Detert (R) vs. Morgan Bentley (D): This is Senate President Pro-Tempore Lisa Carlton's seat. Detert ran for the House when Carlton moved to the Senate, served in the House for eight years, and is now running for Carlton's Senate seat. She has run a very locally-oriented campaign. Morgan Bentley has only been a Democrat for a few months. Prediction: Detert

SD 24: Thad Altman (R) vs. Kendall Moore (D): Kendall Moore ran for the Brevard County Commission in 2006 and lost. Thad Altman has held elected office for over 20 years, from the Brevard County Commission to the State House. Prediction: Altman.

Topic 4: State House Races to Watch

HD 9: Peter Boulware (R) vs. Michelle Rehwinkle Vasilinda(D): Peter Boulware, the FSU graduate and former NFL star turned successful small business owner, has embarked upon a political career. Michelle Rehwinkle Vasilinda has a great deal of name recognition and strong ties to the community. Boulware has enormous crossover appeal, and he is the best chance Republicans have had in years at winning this seat. If Boulware doesn't turn this seat red, no one can. Prediction: Boulware.

HD 11: Debbie Boyd (D) vs. Liz Porter (R): Governor Crist won this district by one of the highest margins in the state. The Republican candidate in '06 was from Alachua County-Gainesville-which put him at a disadvantage, because he did not have the support from Republican strongholds of Lake City/Columbia County, Suwannee County/Live Oak, and Columbia County-where Liz Porter is a former County Commissioner with high name recognition. The top of the ticket factor is going to be critical here; conservative Democrats voting for McCain may be more open to voting for a hometown candidate like Porter. Prediction: Porter.

HD 32: Steve Crisafulli (R) vs. Tony Sasso (D): This is a Republican district. Republicans played the hand they were dealt last time, losing to Tony Sasso in a tight special election (to fill former Rep. Bob Allen's Seat). As we saw with the Foley Congressional Race in 2006, any candidate is going to have trouble coming after a public official who resigns due to a sex scandal. Crisafulli is a fourth-generation Brevard County native - a well known local cattleman. Prediction: Crisafulli.

HD 83: Carl Domino (R) vs. Bryan Miller (D): In this swing district, Domino won by a very small margin in 2006, and his opponent was little known. This is another race where the top of the ticket means a great deal. Miller is a member of Senator Obama's National Finance Committee, and chairs Senator Obama's Palm Beach County Steering Committee. Domino's own words may be the clarion call of his defeat: "I don't have to spend my time on the ground. The rich people on the east side of the district are going to vote for me. I've been in office six years. People know what I stand for." Prediction: Miller.

Topic 5: Constitutional Amendments

Amendment 1 - Property Rights/Ineligible Aliens: Amendment 1 would remove a portion of the Florida Constitution that allows the state to prohibit foreign citizens who live in Florida legally, but maintain their foreign citizenship, from owning or inheriting property. Background: From 1862 to 1965, many states passed laws restricting certain immigrants from owning property. Most states did away with the laws, but Florida has not. Sponsor: The Florida Legislature. Analysis: This part of the Constitution has not been enforced, but removing it is the right thing to do, and the people will agree. Prediction: Passes.

Amendment 2 - Defense of Marriage Act: Amendment 2 defines marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman and prohibits any other legal union that is treated as marriage from being recognized in Florida. Background: Florida has a law on the books defining marriage as between one man and one woman. In light of other states legalizing same sex marriage, supporters advocate adding Florida's current law to the state constitution to protect the measure from potential legal challenges.Sponsor: Florida4Marriage. Analysis: Recent polling shows Amendment 2 with 55 percent approval going into Tuesday's election. Many African American voters, who will turn out in record number to support Obama, are conservative on social issues and may support the measure. Polling on Amendment 1 last January, the property tax cut, was at 59 percent prior to Election Day and the measure passed with 64 percent of the vote. Look for the marriage amendment to pass in a squeaker. Prediction: Passes.

Amendment 3 - Improvements not affecting the assessed value of personal property: Amendment 3 allows homeowners to make improvements to their homes to fend off wind damage or install renewable energy devices without increasing the assessed value of their homes for taxation purposes. Background: The amendment aids ongoing efforts to create a culture of preparedness where Floridians are encouraged and incentivized to prepare their homes and families for the possibility of a hurricane or other weather-related event. Sponsor: Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission (TBRC). Analysis: This should pass. It is a tax break for home hardening and installing energy efficient devices. That being said, none of the tax cut amendments are polling well. Look for a huge undervote on the Amendments. This one narrowly makes it. Prediction: Passes.

Amendment 4 - Property tax exemption of perpetually conserved land: The purpose of Amendment 4 is to provide a property tax exemption for property classified as perpetual conservation easements or other perpetual conservation protections. Background: Enables the protection of conservation lands, but uses fewer tax dollars to do so, by encouraging people to keep conservation land without fearing skyrocketing property taxes. Sponsor: TBRC. Analysis: This Amendment is too confusing and does not put money in the pocket of the average Floridian. While it should pass, it will likely not. Prediction: Fails.

Amendment 6 - Assessment of working waterfront property based upon current use: Amendment 6 would allow commercial fishing, docks, marinas etc. to be valued for taxation purposes at their current use value, not highest and best use. Background: This is similar to the way agricultural land is valued, where the property is taxed by its actual use rather than highest and best use. Sponsor: TBRC. Analysis: Same as Amendment 4. Prediction: Fails.

Amendment 8 - Local Option Community College Funding: Amendment 8 would authorize counties to levy a local option sales tax upon voter approval to supplement community college funding. Background: Provides a new revenue stream for communities worried about cuts in state funding to local community colleges. Sponsor: TBRC. Analysis: A tax increase, even where a referendum is required, is not going to get 60 percent of the vote this year. Prediction: Fails. 

Question of the Week:

Are there any estate planning techniques that I can implement in order to take advantage of the current volatile and uncertain economic environment?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch:

Broward County Sheriff

Scott Israel (D) vs. Al Lamberti (R): The Governor appointed Al Lamberti Sheriff of Broward County after Ken Jenne was indicted. Lamberti is a 30 year member of the law enforcement community. Scott Israel was a member of the Broward Republican Executive Committee and switched parties when the Governor did not appoint him.

Prediction: Al Lamberti wins and becomes the first Republican constitutional officer to win an initial election in Broward County since 1968.

Miss McCain on Saturday Night Live?

See the QVC parody by clicking here.

Final Campaign Finance Reports

Go to www.On3PR.com to check out the last round of contributions and expenditures for Florida's legislative races. This is the last filing prior to the November 4th general election. Florida law prohibits candidates from accepting any contributions 5 days prior to the general election. On 3 Public Relations will be providing statewide election returns for Congressional, Senate and House races throughout Florida. Check back November 4, and early November 5, for updates.

...Same old results. Earlier this fall, state economists predicted that Florida could face a $3.5 billion budget hole for the 2009-10 budget year. Those same economists also predicted a $1.47 billion shortage in the current fiscal year; a significant funding gap requiring Governor Crist to work with lawmakers to tap reserves.

The Legislative Budget Commission approved Governor Crist's plan to take $672 million from the state's reserves, an amount equal to half of the Florida's Budget Stabilization Fund -- the maximum amount that can be removed from the fund by the governor and the commission. The rest of the deficit will be made up by a four percent holdback Governor Crist has requested from state agencies, or by again tapping into the Lawton Chiles Endowment.

State economists last week predicted that normal growth will not return until the 2010-11 budget year, which is 12 months later than their July estimate. Slowed growth is blamed on the state's unemployment rate, currently at 6.6 percent, higher than the national rate and the highest rate since October 1994.

Bottom Line: State forecasters will reconvene in November with a revised economic outlook. Expect sales tax receipts to be worse than expected due to the financial meltdown and its effect on Floridians' appetite for spending. Law makers need to continue to find ways to stimulate the economy. Spade work done today will grow the economy in 2009 and 2010.

Topic 2: Governor Crist Named America's Most Fiscally Conservative Governor

Last week, Governor Charlie Crist earned an A rating from the well respected Cato Institute for his principled approach to issues of taxing and spending. The Cato Institute is a non-profit research foundation focused on increasing understanding of public policy.

The Cato Institute ranked Governor Crist the most fiscally conservative governor in the United States. The Governor was one of only three state executives to earn an A rating, and scored 16 points, and twenty percent higher than the next Governor in the A category.

In support of its ranking, the Cato Institute noted Governor Crist's advocacy for major property tax cuts, including signing a measure that requires local governments to roll back a portion of recent property tax increases, while capping future tax increases for some types of property. The Institute also commented on Governor Crist's support for Amendment 1, which expanded homestead exemptions and established other property tax breaks including portability, saving Florida taxpayers billions of dollars. Finally, CATO mentioned that the state budgets signed by Governor Crist demonstrated restrained spending including use of the line item veto to eliminate many pork barrel projects.

Bottom Line: This ranking is good for Governor Crist and great for the state of Florida. In tough economic times, tax cuts put more money back into the hands of Floridians, ultimately infusing more money back into the economy. Additionally, this ranking is good for business. Letting companies across America know that Florida's low tax environment is conducive to expanding and growing business.

Topic 3: Real Estate - Good News, Bad News

Good News: Home Sales Up 25%: In September, Florida homes sold at a rate nearly 25 percent higher than a year ago and condo sales increased by 11 percent. Homes are selling, but they are selling for a lot less. In Ft. Lauderdale, median sales price fell 25 percent, 26 percent in Miami and 18 percent in West Palm- Beach-Boca Raton. Other areas saw a steeper drop in housing prices. In Fort Myers-Cape Coral, prices dropped 39 percent. In Fort-Pierce-Port St. Lucie, home sales were up 45 percent, but prices were down 32 percent. Likewise, In Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, home sales were up 41 percent with prices down 24 percent. Click here to read more.

Florida Number 3 in Foreclosures: Florida ranks third in the nation, behind Nevada and Arizona in the number of home foreclosures. In September, Florida has 64.2 filings per 1,000 households; Nevada had 77.8, and Arizona 74.6. For Florida, these numbers have doubled in the past year. In Miami, foreclosures have increased 46 percent, with a 36 percent in Palm Beach. Click here for more information.

Bottom Line: After months of decline, Florida's housing market may have finally bottomed out. Though the rate of foreclosures is still high, evidence that buyers are coming off the sidelines is good news, and a step in the right direction.

Topic 4: Here Comes Jacksonville

The most exciting emerging city in America may be right in our backyard. With key infrastructure advantages, such as a thriving port far north enough to serve the southeast, close proximity to I-10; I-95 and I-75, and a consolidated government that acts quickly to attract new business, Jacksonville is firing on all cylinders in an otherwise bleak economy. The jewel of Florida's First Coast has seen some major developments in the past few weeks:

Alenia North America recently announced its commitment to build a final assembly and delivery center for the C-27J Spartan cargo plane at Cecil Commerce Center in Jacksonville. The project received $1.9 million in state incentives, as well as economic incentives from the city and the Jacksonville Airport Authority. The project will create 300 new jobs and is expected to contribute more than $100 million in capital investments.

Additionally, the Jacksonville Port Authority has been negotiating with a variety of entities to bring a new cruise ship terminal line to the area as well as a second Asian container terminal. The second terminal would be located at the current cruise terminal, and a new $60 million cruise ship terminal would be constructed on the Mayport waterfront. The port will likely be dredged in order to accommodate larger ships.

Bottom Line: These new ventures will create jobs and spur development throughout the Northeast Florida Region. Watch for companies across America to move to Jacksonville in coming years as a business friendly, lower tax, and lower cost alternative to Atlanta and Charlotte.

Editor's Note: The law firm of Gunster, Yoakley has taken note of the rise of Jacksonville by opening a new office in the city with eight lawyers joining the firm. To read more, click here.

Topic 5: Attorneys' Fees for Workers Comp.

The Florida Supreme Court delivered an opinion in the case of Emma Murray v. Mariner Health last week, determining that attorneys are entitled to "reasonable" fees in workers compensation cases.

The ruling attempts to clarify a gray area created by 2003 reform legislation which instituted a fee formula in contingency cases, but also mentions that fees awarded should be reasonable. The Court ruled the factors to consider in calculating a reasonable attorney's fee where the claimant is successful should include the time and labor involved, the complexity of the case, and the skill required to perform the necessary legal services. In the case under review by the Court, the claimant's attorney was paid a contingency fee of $8.11 per hour for over 80 hours of work.

The National Federation of Independent Business as well as the Florida Chamber of Commerce expressed concern that the threat of additional legal fees could increase premiums for Florida businesses. The Chamber noted that prior to the 2003 workers compensation reforms Florida consistently led the nation for the highest fees for workers compensation cases.

Bottom Line: This issue will not end with the Florida Supreme Court. Look for business interests to seek legislative changes next session to clarify the 2003 legislation to force courts to adhere to a strict fee schedule. Look for the trial bar to oppose that effort.

Question of the Week

I recently heard that the Office of Foreign Assets Control issued Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines. What are they and are they applicable to individuals and entities outside of the financial sector?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Meet the Man Behind Obama

Bush had Rove. Clinton had Carville. Who is the man behind Obama? Read the New York Times piece on Obama's Chief Strategist, David Axelrod.

Who are the Five Most Important People in Politics Not Running For President?

Can you guess? Click here to find Mark Halperin's picks on The Page.

Miami Man Claims to Have Encountered UFO

If it's crazy, there must be a Florida link. Retired U.S. airman Milton Torres told Britain's Sky News on Monday that he was the pilot ordered to shoot down a UFO while flying from a British air base during the height of the cold war. Recently declassified documents confirm the identity of Torres as the pilot. Speaking from his home in Miami, Torres said he never saw the UFO, but watched in awe as it appeared on his jet's radar and sped off before he had a chance to fire. Click here to read more.

Space Florida Hosts Launch Complex Dedication

The ceremony marked the U.S. Air Force's official "intent to lease" the site to Space Florida for build out of a launch pad that can accommodate light-to-medium lift vertical launches that support commercial, civil and military capabilities.

Lawyers Ready for Election Day

On November 3rd and 4th, thousands of lawyers around the country will set aside their billable client work and devote their time instead to fielding calls at a national voter-protection hotline. At 25 call centers set up across the country - most of them overseen by law firms - volunteers expect to answer up to 10,000 calls during the two-day period. Click here to read more.

No False Light

The Florida Supreme Court ruled last week that "false light" does not exist as a cause of action under Florida Law; therefore, newspapers cannot be sued for unintentionally representing people in a false light.

Amid the doom and gloom of the present economic situation, the sun is shining on Florida exports. With the fourth quarter of the year still to come, Florida has already seen a nearly 25 percent (or $7 billion) increase in exports compared to last year.

What is the boom attributable to? As Florida Trend reports, increased exports of fertilizer to India (via Mosaic Co.), scrap metal to Switzerland, and aircraft engines to Brazil, are fueling Florida's export boom.

Brazil remains Florida's largest trading partner, importing $3.4 billion so far this year, which amounts to an increase of 41 percent. Brazilian airplane manufacturer Embraer, recently visited by Governor Crist on his 2007 trade mission to Brazil, is one of the most prominent players in the thriving Florida-Brazil trade partnership.

Bottom Line: Overall the increase in exports puts Florida fifth in the nation passing Illinois, Ohio and Michigan. If this boom continues, look for $55 billion in exports from Florida this year, up from 44 billion in 2007.

Topic 2: Violent Crime Rate Down

Last week the Florida Department of Law Enforcement announced that for the first time in recent memory, violent crime is down 2.4 percent for the first half of 2008. The announcement came as part of FDLE's Semi-Annual Uniform Crime Report.

While the overall crime rate has been at historic lows for more than thirty years, violent crime, which includes murder, robbery, aggravated assault and forcible sex offenses, has been increasing over the past several years. This year, violent crime decreased, while overall crime increased slightly by 1.6 percent. The crime rate is derived from the number of Part I offenses reported for each 100,000 unit of the state's population. Part I offenses include murder, violent sex offenses, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle thefts.

The Anti-Murder Act championed by Governor Crist, and now a full year into implementation, could be the factor causing the decline in violent crime. The Anti-Murder Act requires judges to put violent offenders back in jail when they violate probation.

Bottom Line: The decline in violent crime reverses a disturbing trend in Florida. The Anti-Murder Act, as well as Attorney General McCollum's efforts in fighting cybercrime, seems to have turned the tide against violent crime, especially crimes against children.

Topic 3: Accelerated Road Construction

Governor Crist announced last week the acceleration of more than 179 projects, totaling $1.4 billion in road construction funding. The announcement is part of Governor's Crist's Accelerate Florida economic stimulus plan which seeks to speed up billions of dollars in already funded construction and capital outlay projects in order to aid Florida's faltering economy.

Following the Governor's directive, the Florida Department of Transportation was able to move projects forward more quickly by reducing red tape involved in the permitting process. As a result, construction will begin to add capacity to U.S. 301 in Sarasota by widening from four to six lanes and U.S 1 in Vero Beach will be widened from four to five lanes. Additionally, South Patrick Drive in Brevard County will expand from two to four lanes, and four lanes will be added in Northwest Miami-Dade County. Finally, several bridges within the State Highway system will be repaired or replaced.

Bottom Line: Government can play a role in stimulating the economy without bailing out failed institutions. The projects accelerated by the Department of Transportation will employ 39,000 people and generate $7.84 billion in economic benefits, a $5.60 return on each state dollar invested.

Topic 4: Cover Florida Companies Announced

After months of a competitive negotiation process, the state of Florida announced the selection of six insurance companies to participate in the Cover Florida Program.

Through legislation passed earlier this year, the Cover Florida Program aims at providing health insurance options for the nearly 4 million currently uninsured Floridians. The plan leverages competition in the existing market by partnering with private insurance companies to create innovative health insurance products. These products will be designed to be priced at $150 per month or less, and will cover a range of primary and emergency services. Cover Florida is voluntary, with no mandates on individuals or on employers to participate. The plan is designed to focus on primary and preventive care to discourage unnecessary and costly visits to the emergency room.

Among the many applicants, two statewide and four regional plans were selected for inclusion in the Cover Florida program. Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida and United Healthcare were selected to participate in a statewide program. The four regional providers include Florida Health Care Plan in Volusia and Flagler counties as well as Total Health Choice, United Healthcare, JMH Health Plan, and Medical Health Plan of Florida for coverage in the Miami area.

Bottom Line: Cover Florida provides a market-based approach to creating greater opportunities for Floridians to access affordable health care. In a year of limited resources, these reforms maximize consumer choice and provide health care to those who have been unable to afford it.

Topic 5: Aid for Local Governments

Florida's Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week requesting the Federal Reserve extend a recent proposal to create a Commercial Paper Funding Facility to local governments impacted by the credit crisis.

Over the past few weeks, State and local governments as well as the state of Florida, have had very limited access to credit. When governments cannot access credit many important projects that create jobs and help stabilize the economy can be halted due to lack of cash flow. The Federal Reserve has attempted to solve this problem through buying short term debt from businesses. CFO Sink proposes extending this benefit to local governments.

Bottom Line: Job creation is the key to getting our economy back on track. Allowing local governments to participate in this program could give municipalities the boost needed to jump start projects that create jobs and revenue.

Question of the Week

When voters go to the polls on Election Day they will choose a President who will direct the future of our energy and environmental policy. Among the energy sources the next President will have to consider are clean coal, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and improving fuel efficiency for automobiles. Which candidate has the best policy for America? You decide.

Things to Watch

Election Predictions: Two weeks from today, the LeMieux Report will give you its predictions on the winners and losers of the 2008 election, as well as which of the ballot initiatives will pass and which will fail. Stay tuned!

September Unemployment Figures: Florida's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2008 is 6.6 percent. This represents 613,000 jobless out of a labor force of 9,338,000. The unemployment rate remains the same as the revised August rate of 6.6 percent and is up 2.4 percentage points from the September 2007 rate. Florida's August and September 2008 unemployment rates are the highest since October 1994, which was also 6.6 percent. The state's current unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point higher than the national unemployment rate of 6.1 percent. Read more here.

Legislative Campaign Reports Filed: Legislative campaign reports were due midnight Friday, October 17 for totals through October 10, 2008. Go to www.On3PR.com.

Florida on Track to Beat Emission Targets: The report from the Governor's Action Team on Energy and Climate Change solidifies Crist's 2007 climate initiative in a set of policy prescriptions that could alter everything from how homes are built to the types of cars Floridians buy. Click here to read more.

Powell Endorses Obama on Meet the Press: Former Secretary of State Collin Powel endorsed Barack Obama on Sunday's Meet the Press calling Obama a "transformational figure". To watch the endorsement, click here.

Topic 1: Florida's Finances

The trouble Wall Street has seen in recent weeks has found its way to Florida not only in its general effect on the overall economy, but in particular with regard to the Florida Treasury.

The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which held securities in Lehman Brothers, was down over $83 million at the end of September and is currently valued at $11.9 billion. Similarly, the Florida Pension System, with investments in AIG, Lehman, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia Corp, lost nearly $350 million last month. With an asset value of $115 billion, the Florida Pension Fund is only marginally down. The Florida Treasury Investment Pool has lost $71 million in five months, over $25 million in September alone, but still totals $24 billion.

Bottom Line: Florida is one of the only states in the country with a fully funded pension system. If every state worker retired today, the pension fund could fully fund each worker's retirement. These decreases in pension value are substantial, but it is important to keep in mind that for the time being, most of the losses have not been realized and are only on paper.

Topic 2: Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

With credit markets frozen and financial institutions in need of assistance, Congress recently reached an agreement on the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. The Act is the latest attempt to fix the credit and liquidity crisis plaguing the U.S. financial system. Here are a few of the Act's main provisions. For a complete banking advisory from Gunster Yoakley, click here.

Troubled Asset Relief Program: The Act establishes a Troubled Asset Relief Program ("TARP") under which the Treasury Secretary, through the newly created Office of Financial Stability, may initially purchase up to $250 billion in "troubled assets" from "financial institutions". All affected institutions must limit incentives for executive officers, be allowed to recover any bonus or incentive paid to a senior executive officer based on statements of earnings or gains which are later proven to be inaccurate, and prohibit golden parachute payments.

Recoupment: After five years, the President must submit a legislative proposal that recoups from the financial industry an amount equal to the amount spent to ensure that the Program does not add to the deficit or national debt.

Deposit Insurance: Until December 31, 2009, the Act increases the insurance provided by the FDIC for coverage for accounts from $100,000 to $250,000.

Bottom Line: Overall, the Act contains substantially increased powers for the Secretary to deal with the spiraling financial crisis. The Act is focused on helping financial institutions with bad assets that are weighing down their balance sheets. Whether this aid will arrive in time, and whether the new powers and the high price tag of the legislation will be enough to turn the crisis around, remains to be seen.

Topic 3: Florida Receives National Ranking for Energy Efficiency

Last week the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) released the 2008 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard. The scorecard ranks states by reviewing energy efficiency policies, programs, and practices.

The top three states were California, Oregon and Connecticut. Idaho was the most improved state, rising from 25th to 13th. Florida was the second most improved raising from 29th to 19th since the council began the scorecard in 2006.

The council noted that as one of the fastest growing states in the country, Florida has a demand for electricity that grows faster than her population. Additionally, the council mentioned that Florida is one of the most natural-gas-dependent states in the country, with more than a third of our electricity generated by natural gas.

Bottom Line: The recommendations made by the ACEEE, if implemented, could reduce Florida's dependence on natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear fuels by nearly 30 percent in the next 15 years. By increasing energy efficiency in the short term, while creating more renewable energy options in the long-term, Florida can create a sustainable energy future for her growing and developing population.

Topic 4: Florida's Shrinking Orange Crop

The United States Department of Agriculture recently released projections for this year's orange crop. Florida is again expected to generate the vast majority of the crop, 166 million of the 211.7 million, 90 pound boxes of oranges produced nationwide.

While nationwide, the orange crop is ten percent smaller this year, Florida remains dominant in orange juice production. By comparison, California which produces most of the oranges sold as fruit will produce just 31 million boxes this year, down from 44 million boxes last year.

The Associated Press reports that part of the decrease in production can be attributed to the spread of citrus greening, bacteria that came to Florida from Asia in 2005, and causes citrus to sour. The bacteria continues to impact many areas of the citrus industry and has required a multi-million dollar investment by both the state and federal governments as well as commercial growers who continue to research a solution for the long term, while exploring treatment options in the short term.

Bottom Line: A smaller crop is both good news and bad news for Florida's citrus industry. The good news is that a shortage of supply may cause price increases generating more profit for growers struggling to stay afloat. The bad news is that while orange juice is still a staple for many, if prices increase too much consumers could chose an alternative.

Topic 5: Future of the Class Size Amendment

In 2002, Floridians voted in favor of adding a reduction in school class size to the State Constitution. The Class Size Amendment calls for no more than 18 students per class in Kindergarten through Third Grade, 22 students in Fourth through Eighth Grade classes and 25 students per class in high school.

The cost of the implementing this amendment could reach over $22 billion by 2010, and what would be a difficult budget feat even in the best of times, is even more difficult with the $3.5 billion budget deficit Florida is expected to face next year. In light of these facts, state lawmakers are working with local school boards to come up with a solution that calls for a more gradual reduction in the size of classes, while maintaining other important school programs.

The compromise may involve delaying implementation of the Class Size Amendment at the high school level, which could save taxpayers tens of millions of dollars and avoid other cuts to school budgets.

Bottom Line: This issue is important to the people of Florida and lawmakers have a constitutional duty to ensure the Amendment is implemented; however, in these tough budget times, if smaller classes mean cuts to teacher pay and other critical education programs, lawmakers run the risk of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Question of the Week

Is your company prepared for the November 1st deadline to comply with the Identity Theft Prevention Program requirements of the FACT Act?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Think the 2008 Election is the Height of Mudslinging? Read today's Washington Post Column and you might think differently. In the election of 1800, Thomas Jefferson was attacked by ministers who accused him of being an "infidel" and an "unbeliever." A Federalist cartoon depicted him as a drunken anarchist, and the president of Yale warned that if Jefferson came to power, "we may see our wives and daughters the victims of legal prostitution." Think that is bad, wait to you hear what they said about John Adams!

Visit Florida...To Drink and Gamble?An interesting report released last week in southwest Florida shows that while visitor spending has decreased nearly 20 percent, liquor purchases have increased by 41.4 percent and gaming has increased by over 350 percent.

The I-4 Election: "The 132-mile interstate running from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach cuts through fast-growing cities and neighborhoods flooded with new immigrants, through citrus farms, Disney and the birthplace of American stock car racing. It comprises 40 percent of the Florida's voting population, and also by far its most unpredictable voting bloc." Click here to read more about how Florida's I-4 corridor could make the difference in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Is Less Local Government The Answer? Click here for an interesting take on consolidation of city and county government. Should Escambia County and Pensacola consolidate in a fashion similar to Duval County and Jacksonville?

Turtle Soup: A rising demand in China for turtles for food and medicine has led to the round-up of thousands of turtles from Florida's lakes, ponds and canals. Exporters are shipping up to 3,000 pounds of softshell turtles a week out of Tampa International Airport, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. A Fort Lauderdale seafood company is buying about 5,000 pounds of softshell turtles a week. They're worth about $2 a pound to the harvesters. Read more here.

The fight over a proposed $700 billion economic recovery package consumed Washington last week. In a surprising vote on Monday, the United States House of Representatives failed to pass the bill by a vote of 228-205. Wednesday, the Senate passed a new version of the bill and sent it back to the House with $110 billion in tax breaks and a new health care law (See Topic 4). Those and other incentives persuaded House members to pass the measure Friday by a vote of 263-171.

Through the bill the federal government will spend hundreds of billions of dollars purchasing bad assets from struggling financial companies. The companies will sell those assets to the government at a discounted rate. Once the markets have stabilized, the government will in turn sell the assets it purchased. The hope is that the money used to buy the troubled assets will be recouped later by selling those assets in a better market.

The bill limits the huge settlements executives of failing companies sometimes earn when a company is bought out. Additionally, for one year the amount of money the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will insure in personal bank accounts will increase from $100,000 to $250,000 to restore confidence in the banking industry.

BOTTOM LINE: The bailout was needed, but is a hard pill to swallow. Imagine what we could have done with $700 billion. Incentivizing the development of alternative energy, guaranteeing college tuition for a generation of Americans, substantially increasing teacher pay nationwide, are just a few “wish list” items that we often think are too expensive to accomplish.

Topic 2: Second Supreme Court Appointment

Last week, Governor Crist appointed Judge Ricky Polston to the Florida Supreme Court, the second of at least four appointments to the Florida Supreme Court Governor Crist will make in his first term. Judge Polston will fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Justice Kenneth B. Bell.

Polston has served as a judge for the First District Court of Appeals since 2001. Before that, he practiced law privately, worked as a certified public accountant for 30 years, and taught at the Florida State College of Law, of which he is a 1986 graduate. Polston and his wife are parents to 10 children. After their four daughters were grown, they adopted six brothers from state foster care, ages 1 through 15.

The appointment follows the selection last month of Charles T. Canady to fill the seat vacated by Justice Raoul Cantero. Justices Harry Lee Anstead and Charles T. Wells will reach the mandatory retirement age (70) next year. Look for the Supreme Court Judicial Nominating Commission to begin its process in the coming days to fill the next vacancy.

BOTTOM LINE: Judge Polston’s range of legal and life experience makes him well suited for the Supreme Court. Governor Crist has made two solid appointments to the Supreme Court that have been broadly heralded by the legal, media and political communities.

Topic 3: Credit Crunch Hits Florida

During Tuesday’s meeting of the Florida Cabinet, Ben Watkins, director of the state Division of Bond Finance noted that Florida, a state that borrows $1 or $2 billion per year, has been unable to borrow money for three weeks.

The state borrows money to finance construction projects including schools and roads, and to purchase land. However, this type of financing is determined months in advance, so many of the state’s current projects can move forward unaffected by the national credit crisis – at least for the time being.

BOTTOM LINE: With the passage of the $700 billion rescue package last week, hopefully the credit market will again be available for infrastructure financing. In the meantime, and more importantly, there is real concern that the State’s Catastrophe Fund (CAT Fund) would be unable to fulfill its obligations in the event of a significant hurricane. State lawmakers must address this concern, and potentially look to reinsurance to back up Florida’s obligations.

Topic 4: Coverage for Mental Illness Mandated in Bailout Bill

Hidden in the hundreds of billions of dollars to bailout America’s financial infrastructure is a new health care law that requires medical insurance companies to cover mental illness in the same way physical illness is covered. A similar measure failed to pass the Florida Legislature last year.

Senator Pete Domenici of Arizona may lose his personal struggle with an incurable degenerative brain disease, but when President Bush signed the $700 billion rescue package on Friday Domenici won the fight for millions of Americans who worry about how to pay for medical services for mental illness.

Domenici, whose daughter suffers from mental illness, has been working to pass this legislation since 1996 and is tragically one of the last original champions of the legislation left in our nation’s capitol. His partner in this effort, Senator Paul Wellston of Minnesota passed away in a plane crash in 2002. Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts joined the effort next, but his own health concerns kept him from the Senate during its passage.

BOTTOM LINE: This bill was the right thing to do. Mental illness deserves coverage just as much as any other sickness. Domenici is to be commended for his work. Domenici’s 35 year Senate career will end this November due to his illness, but his legislation will move forward to help American families struggling with this challenge.

Topic 5: Jobs, There Aren’t Enough

The Labor Department released a report last week that marks the nation’s unemployment rate at 6.1 percent, up 4.7 points from this time last year and representing over 750,000 jobs lost in the past year.

The losses amount to 9.5 million unemployed Americans and shows job cuts at the highest rate in five years. Company cutbacks are not isolated to one particular industry as private payroll reductions in the fields of manufacturing, homebuilding, law, and accounting overwhelmed job growth in other sectors like education and health care.

Last month, Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation released a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August of 6.5 percent, representing 606,000 jobless out of a labor force of 9,320,000. Florida’s unemployment rate is up 2.3 points in the last year.

BOTTOM LINE: September numbers will be available in a couple of weeks and will likely show a trend similar to what we have seen over the past couple of months – a slow decline, along the lines of the numbers nationwide. Over time if the bailout is successful, credit should become more available, stabilizing the housing market, which in turn should stem job loss.

Things to Watch

A Day in the Life of a Political Operative

With less than 30 days until Election Day, life for political operatives here in Florida and across the country is anything but easy going. For more insight of what it is like to be in the trenches, read the Wall Street Journal’s chronicle of a day in the life of one of John McCain's field generals.

New Alabama/Florida Toll Road

Last week, Florida Trend reported on a proposal floating around LA (Lower Alabama) to link Dothan to Florida’s I-10 via a toll road. Competing local interests both worry about lost business along existing roads, but like the business prospects presented by creating another major intersection along 1-10. Click here to read more here.

Job Performance

A poll released last week by the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows more than two-thirds of Florida voters, regardless of their party affiliation, approve of Governor Charlie Crist’s job performance.

Is the Party Over for House Republicans?

Read the New York Times’ piece on why House Republicans like Representative Tom Davis are calling it quit. Learn more.

Rescue Bill Politics

Only 27% of congressman in tight races voted for the rescue/bailout bill according to the Washington Post. To read more, click here.

Topic 1: Biggest Bank Failure in US History

While all eyes were focused on the 700 billion bailout plan, on Friday, Washington Mutual was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The failure of Washington Mutual is the largest bank failure in the history of the United States.

The Associated Press reports that Washington Mutual got into trouble with its exposure in the subprime mortgage business. Later, Washington Mutual's loan portfolio ran into hard times due to adjustable rate mortgage loans. Problems with the bank's home loan business date back to 2006 when the company lost $48 million, while the previous year the same business had a $1 billion gain.

JP Morgan is taking over Washington Mutual, for $1.9 billion, making it the second largest bank in the United States after Bank of America, the recent purchaser of Merrill Lynch. After the transition, JPMorgan Chase will have 5,400 branches in 23 states. This spring, JP Morgan purchased Bear Stearns Cos. for $1.4 billion and $900 million in stock. Wachovia also appears to be on the sale block.

Bottom Line: For some perspective, the IndyMac bank which failed in July had $32 billion in assets. Washington Mutual, by comparison, held $307 billion in assets. WaMu is yet another victim of the sinking real estate market and the bad debt revealed by the decline. Hopefully, the federal bailout will mark the beginning of the recovery of the financial sector.

Topic 2: A Development of Destiny

Last week, Destiny Florida unveiled a plan for America's first eco-sustainable city. The 41,300 acre (65 square mile) community will be built in Central Florida near Yeehaw Junction and is intended to serve as a prototype for future cities across the nation.

Construction is planned for 2011, and the community is designed to accommodate a population of 250,000. Planned to minimize or even eliminate sprawl, the city will have a dense design with 200 miles of navigable waterways, 14.5 miles of rail lines and 84 miles of bus, tram and trolley routes. Additionally, the design features a 1,300 acre lake and 61 miles of trails and bike paths.

Bottom Line: Destiny has the challenge and the luxury of building an eco-sustainable city from scratch. If it can survive regulatory hurdles, Destiny has the chance to create a new inland city that balances nature with development.

Topic 3: And the Winner is...Raymond James

The St. Petersburg Times runs a blog entry every Sunday naming the winner and loser of the week. Most entries are related to politics, but on the business side, the big winner last week was St. Petersburg's own Raymond James. The company escaped the Wall Street meltdown that buried other investment giants and thus, with a stock value of $3.8 billion, Raymond James is now the largest independent investment bank in the United States.

The Tampa Tribune explains that unlike some of the larger names in investment banking, Raymond James makes most of its revenue by buying and selling stocks for clients, earning the company over one and a half billion dollars last year, compared with about $200 million gained from investment banking. The result of Raymond James' conservative focus? Ongoing stability even in a volatile marketplace.

Bottom Line: With 4,000 Florida employees, and 10,000 nationwide, we are fortunate that the leadership of Raymond James chartered a different course. Being on top, however, will present its own unique set of challenges for a company that has existed somewhat under the radar.

Topic 4: Water Czar?

The Water Congress, a group of 100 developers, community leaders, lawyers and lobbyists, met last week in St. Petersburg to discuss Florida's evolving water needs. Among the topics covered was the need for a statewide Water Czar who would have the power to control portions of the state's water supply.

The idea was first entertained during the Bush Administration when the Council of 100 proposed amending a state law that requires localities to exhaust all local water sources before pumping water in form other areas, to a statewide water distribution system. The Council originally advocated a seven member water commission that would have the power to move water to areas in short supply.

The creation of any water board or "Water Czar" would require legislative approval. Additionally, the new position would likely require a complete restructuring of the current water management system - five water management districts created by the legislature in 1972.

Bottom Line: Water management is an issue Florida will have to address in the coming years. Look no further than our neighbor to the north, Georgia, to see the result of poor planning in the face of increased development. Whether by czar, board or otherwise, Florida's leaders need to address this issue before it reaches crises state.

Topic 5: Taxes on Short Sales

When you sell property the law is clear that you pay taxes based upon the price of the property...or is it? What happens when you sell for less than what you owe on the mortgage, a transaction known as a "short sale?"

Some mortgage bankers felt that the amount of doc stamps due on such a sale was the amount of the short sale price. Others thought that the amount of doc stamps was on the amount of the sale plus the amount of debt forgiven by the lender.

The Florida Bankers Association approached the Florida Department of Revenue (DOR) on the issue and last week DOR issued a Technical Assistance Advisement (TAA) stating taxes should be paid on the lesser amount, the amount of the short sale.

Bottom Line: This is good news for taxpayers. DOR got it right.

Question of the Week

How can landowners and governments work together to resolve urban sprawl in rural land development while protecting agriculture and environmentally sensitive land?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

The Crisis of 1907: How the Financial System was Bailed Prior to the Fed.

Who came to the rescue of the financial system before the Federal Reserve Bank existed? J.P. Morgan, not the bank, but the man. Read the Washington Post story here.

Tina Fey Encore

See Tina Fey as Governor Palin one more time on this week's edition of Saturday Night Live.

No More Risky Business

Corporate general counsels expect increased company risk management and more regulatory enforcement in the wake of collapsing financial institutions, such as Fannie Mae, Lehman Bros Holdings Inc., and American International Group. State government regulatory oversight will likely rise with more attorneys general probes, and federal oversight will expand in step with the next presidential administration, said general counsel attending the Argyle Executive Forum in Chicago this week. Click here to read more from the National Law Journal on changes corporate lawyers expect to see as a result of the Wall Street meltdown.

Packing Heat in the Sunshine State

"The number of Floridians with permission to pack heat has jumped nearly 50% in three years. In 2005, one year before the state Legislature's decision to provide anonymity to people holding concealed weapons licenses, there were 347,350 active permits statewide. Now, that number has swelled to about 520,000." Click here to read more on the increase in the number of concealed weapons licenses issued.

Over the past two weeks, the United States financial system has been shocked in a way never seen before. The tumult began when the housing downturn fueled a record rate of mortgage foreclosures, which, in turn, obliterated Wall Street's market for mortgage-backed securities. Financial institutions have written off over a half trillion dollars in assets in 2008 alone.

In just the past two weeks: Two of the four remaining, independent investment banks were either sold (Merrill Lynch) or collapsed (Lehman Brothers); The Federal Reserve acquired the two primary engines of the United States mortgage industry - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - for $200 billion; The Federal Reserve purchased almost 80% of the U.S.'s largest insurer, AIG, for $85 billion in short-term loans; The U.S. Treasury extended government insurance beyond just bank deposits, to also cover almost $3.4 trillion in money market funds for the next year; and The Bush administration submitted a $700 billion proposal to Congress for the U.S. Treasury to buy mortgage-related assets from U.S.-based financial institutions.

In reaction to the turmoil, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission took extraordinary steps of its own in an effort to help stabilize the U.S. financial markets. First, on Wednesday, the SEC took several coordinated actions to strengthen investor protections against "naked" short selling (selling a stock short without first borrowing the shares or ensuring that the shares can be borrowed). Then, on Friday, in an unprecedented step, the SEC prohibited all short selling in the securities of almost 800 financial companies through October 2, 2008, with the option to extend this prohibition for an additional two weeks. The SEC stated that unbridled short selling was contributing to the recent, sudden price declines in the securities of financial institutions.

Also on Friday, the SEC took the following additional steps to address recent market conditions: Temporarily requiring that certain institutional money managers report their new short sales of certain publicly traded securities; and Temporarily easing restrictions on the ability of securities issuers to re-purchase their securities with the goal of giving issuers more flexibility to buy back their securities, and help restore liquidity.

While Wall Street generally hailed these measures as a stabilizing first step, hedge fund lobbying groups objected to the moves, saying regulators and executives have not presented any evidence of abusive or manipulative short selling.

Bottom Line: Our entire financial system is changing before our very eyes, and at record speed. Whether the government's actions will stabilize our roiling financial markets will play out over the upcoming weeks and months. We will continue to closely monitor the situation and keep you apprised of major developments as they unfold.

Topic 2: New Disney Real Estate

With today's struggling economy, particularly the real estate market, it is not often that you hear of new projects being planned. Not so, for Central Florida where the Walt Disney Co. is launching two new vacation resorts after setting records for theme park attendance in recent years.

Last week, Disney announced plans to build a 60 unit time share property in a rebuilt section of Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa called Treehouse Villas, additionally the company will build a 300 unit facility called Bay Lake Tower connected to Disney's Contemporary Resort.

Disney Vacation Club currently has nine resorts and 350,000 members, and by 2009 will have more time share properties for sale than ever before. Disney Developers maintain that it in these tough economic times, buyers look at time shares as a way to make an upfront investment that will save money on future vacations.

Bottom Line: Time and time again the Walt Disney Company finds a way to succeed, even in down times. Timeshares can be a great investment for families who enjoy the tradition of vacationing to the same place each year. If you are interested in purchasing a timeshare, read the fine print to make sure this vacation option is right for your family.

Topic 3: Gas Update

We all know that gas prices recently shot up well above $5 per gallon in some parts of Florida as consumers responded to gas shortage fears due to Hurricane Ike. Due to the temporarily increase in demand as a result of the rumors, pictures of empty gas stations, particularly in Tallahassee and Gainesville, were plastered across national media outlets, which in turn fueled the rumors and speculation.

Florida was not, and is not, experiencing a gas shortage. However, the Florida Attorney General's Office has received more than 8,500 reports of price gouging related to gasoline prices. By Friday, 2,821 complaints had been referred to the Economic Crimes Division for review.

Bottom Line: The good news is that last week as gas stations began to receive shipments to restock their tanks, gas prices began to drop and fuel purchases began to stabilize. The bad news is that with Wall Street's woes, the price of oil has gone back up. Unfortunately, look for continued volatility in gas prices.

Topic 4: Supreme Court Reveals Reason for Removing Amendments

Recently, the Florida Supreme Court unanimously removed two potential constitutional amendments from the November ballot on grounds they were beyond the authority of the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission (TBRC), a group convened every twenty years and empowered under the Florida Constitution to place amendments on the ballot.

The removed amendments included Amendment 7, which proposed removing a ban on state funding for religious institutions, and Amendment 9 which would have modified a provision in the Constitution that requires uniformity in public education, so as to ensure the legality of vouchers.

Last week, the Supreme Court released a full opinion on the subject, further defining the role of the TBRC as it relates to proposing constitutional amendments dealing with the state budgetary process. The court defined the "state budgetary process" narrowly to mean the process by which the state budget is developed, while the TBRC proposed the amendments with the view that the "state budgetary process" includes any issue that addresses either raising revenue or any state expenditure.

The Supreme Court stated that the "TBRC's jurisdiction to propose constitutional amendments does not extend to a subject solely because the State will expend funds on that subject or because it could affect the State's expenditures."

Bottom Line: The Florida Supreme Court has the final say on issues involving the Florida Constitution. The next TBRC's purview, coming in 2027, will be more limited in scope.

Topic 5: Year of the Shark

According to a story published by the Daytona Beach News Journal last week, Volusia County is set to break the record for shark bites this year. The county has already tied the previous record of 22 in 2001.

Interestingly, the Chamber of Commerce reports that the number of bites this year has not affected business. Many factors can impact the number of shark bites, some natural and some not. Aside from the natural factors related to ocean conditions that can alter shark populations, other factors, bad weather for example, can cause a decrease in the number of human/shark encounters. In contrast, an increasing number of bites may be attributed to an increase in tourism causing more people to be in the water.

Volusia County leads the Florida in the number is shark bites since 1882, with 210 reported. Brevard comes in second with 90 bites. Florida leads the world in shark bites between 1990 and 2007 with 397. Australia comes in at a distant second with 109 bites for the same period. Who knew?

Bottom Line: Fortunately, being number one in shark bites doesn't seem to deter tourists, though like the gas shortage rumors, a mountain is sometimes made out of a mole hill...the odds of being bitten by a shark are 1 in 11.5 million.

Question of the Week

When is Fort Lauderdale scheduled to release additional residential units to develop in its downtown?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

AIG Update

We gave you our take this week on the quickly-unfolding fallout over at AIG, and the company's fortunes were turning by the hour into the weekend. Regulators continue to assure policyholders that AIG's key insurer subsidiaries are fully capitalized and solvent. The government's $85 billion credit facility helped restore some confidence in the crippled insurer, as did soothing statements from state regulators and AIG itself. By the end of the week, AIG's stock had more than tripled from its panic-induced low hit Tuesday morning, and shareholders were so confident that by Friday they were looking for ways out of the deal that gave taxpayers an 80 percent equity stake.

Assuming the government receives that AIG paper - and this too remains in doubt this weekend as details of the deal are still being worked out - the taxpayer could wind up being the biggest winner of all. If AIG can isolate its mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations, its core insurance businesses are highly profitable, even in the current soft market. AIG could get a big boost from the federal government's proposed $700 billion fund that would mop up a lot of the bad mortgage debt that AIG is backing up.

If taxpayers really wanted to help themselves, they might consider holding onto their AIG policies. After all, many of AIG's biggest competitors, like arch-rival Zurich, are foreign carriers. If paying higher taxes is patriotic, then sticking with AIG during this crisis is more patriotic than a Hank Williams ballad. Your tax dollars may depend on its survival.

Vote-Rich Florida up for Grabs?

Maybe, according to Washington Post staff writer Dan Balz's column yesterday. To get the full story, click here.

Rules of Engagement

The terms have been set for the presidential and vice presidential debates, which begin this Friday in Mississippi. Look for Senators McCain and Obama to have an open format that encourages a free flowing exchange between the candidates. The vice presidential debate will be more structured with shorter times for response and less interaction between the candidates. However, the V.P. debate will be wide open in terms of subject matter with moderator Gwen Ifill free to ask questions on any topic, foreign or domestic. For more information, click here.

Droopy Drawers

Palm Beach Circuit Judge Paul Moyle ruled the city of Riviera Beach's law prohibiting saggy pants unconstitutional last week. Read more here.

General Election Legislative Finance Reports

Campaign Finance Reports for Legislative candidates raising funds for the November general election were due midnight Friday, September 19. This is the first report following the August 26 primary election, click here for On 3 PR's wrap up.

Transition Planning Begins

Both Senators McCain and Obama have begun the formal process of preparing to take the reigns of government on January 20, 2009. Read the Sunday New York Times story to learn the players leading the transition teams in both camps.

Gas prices shot up well above $5 per gallon in some parts of Florida as consumers responded to fears of a gas shortage starting last Friday. Despite the viral spread of the shortage rumor, Florida is not experiencing a gas shortage due to Hurricane Ike.

In a press conference on Saturday, Governor Crist announced that Florida's East and West Coast ports were open, operating, and receiving petroleum, so Florida's gas stations continued to receive their normal supply.

The Economic Crimes Division of the Florida Attorney General's Office is currently investigating nearly 550 complaints related to gasoline price gouging in several locations throughout Florida. State investigators will collect documentation on the nature of price spikes to determine if the price increases were legal. Price gouging is prohibited during a declared state of emergency. Violators face a fine of up to $25,000 per day. Subpoenas have already been issued following price increases last week.

Bottom Line: Price gougers seek to profit on the misfortune of others, and the state will not abide profiteering. If you have information concerning price gouging, contact the Attorney General's Office at 1-866-9NOSCAM.

Topic 2: Everglades Land Negotiations

At the end of June, Governor Charlie Crist and representatives from the United States Sugar Corporation (U.S. Sugar) announced the beginning of negotiations for an agreement to purchase 187,000 acres of agricultural land, nearly 300 square miles of land in Hendry, Glades and Palm Beach Counties. The land will be used to reconnect Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades. Last week, negotiators unveiled three options for the land acquisition.

Currently, Florida Crystals owns 35,000 acres within the sugar lands needed to complete the path to restoration, including a processing plant fueled by sugarcane waste. Of the three plans unveiled, however, two of the plans circumvent the Florida Crystal tract. One calls for a series of reservoirs and treatment areas around the Florida Crystal land, while the other locates those facilities on land owned by U.S. Sugar, but requires a more extensive series of pumps and canals to move the clean water towards the Everglades.

The hundreds of millions in assets, including railways and mills located on the land owned by U.S Sugar, are also a topic of negotiation. Governor Crist has advocated converting the large sugar mill near Clewiston to an ethanol plant. Local interests advocate utilizing some of the land's assets, or nearby property, to create an inland port (logistics center) to divert commercial traffic off of congested coastal highways.

Bottom Line: This deal will get worked out, but as with any complex negotiation, the devil is in the details. In the end, this will be the largest and most important environmental acquisition in anyone's recent memory.

Topic 3: Gaming Compact Appeal Denied

In July, the Florida Supreme Court ruled in the case of the Seminole Gaming Compact, finding the governor could not enter into the agreement without legislative approval. 

The compact gave the tribe exclusive rights to operate slot machines and banked card games (games against the house, e.g., black jack). In return, the state limited casino gaming to the Seminole's existing seven facilities, entered into a profit sharing agreement that would have garnered billions of dollars to the state over the twenty-five year life of the agreement, and ensured consumer protection by allowing the state to monitor the tribe's gaming operations. The agreement came after 16 years of failed negotiations and just as the Department of the Interior was about to approve slot machines for the Seminoles without profit sharing or oversight by the state.

Following the Supreme Court ruling, Governor Crist and the Seminole Tribe requested another opportunity to argue the case. The request was denied last week in a 6-1 ruling. The Seminole Tribe has continued to operate the casino games, and being a sovereign nation, the state has limited ability to prevent the tribe from doing so.

Bottom Line: The ball is now in the court of the Florida Legislature to weigh in on the compact. The Seminoles will have the right to slot machines with or without state approval. The responsible course of action is for legislative leaders, the Governor's Office and the tribe to come to an agreement so Florida can share in the billions of dollars of revenue the Seminole casinos will generate.

Topic 4: State Farm Refund

Soon nearly 100,000 Florida State Farm policy holders will receive a refund in the average amount of $1,220 per policy. This announcement comes just days after Florida's Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) denied the companies' request for a rate increase of over 47 percent.

Refunds will be awarded to homeowners who have met the requirements for home hardening. The credits will be awarded to policyholders as a credit toward their renewals and will total $120 million. The company will also pay a penalty of $1 million to the Florida Insurance Regulatory Trust Fund.

Bottom Line: Home hardening is the best, and possibly only long-term antidote to rising insurance rates. If you have made improvements to your home, call your agent and ask for an inspection to see if you qualify for a discount. Your insurer is required to give you the discount you deserve.

Topic 5: Budget Stabilized - For Now

State economists recently predicted that Florida could face a $3.5 billion budget hole for the 2009-2010 Budget, an increase from the prediction of a $2.2 billion budget gap earlier this month. State economists also predicted a $1.47 billion shortage in the current fiscal year. A significant funding gap that has required Governor Crist to work with lawmakers to use reserves to shore up the $66 billion budget passed last session.

Last week, the Legislative Budget Commission approved the Governor Crist's plan to take $672 million from the state's reserves, an amount equal to half of the Florida's Budget Stabilization Fund - the maximum amount that can be removed from the fund by the governor and the commission. The rest of the deficit could be made up by a four percent holdback Governor Crist has requested from state agencies or by again tapping into the Lawton Chiles Endowment.

Bottom Line: State economists will update their predictions in November. Following that estimate, Governor Crist and state lawmakers will again have to fill the gap between the current year budget and incoming state revenue. Hopefully by November, revenue estimates will match revenue reality.

Question of the Week

When will the foreclosure market peak and why is the real estate market taking so long to recover?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Guess Who?

Can you guess who I am? I am not yet 45 years old but already I have taken the nation by storm. I am known for my avid love of the outdoors. I hunt, fish, hike, and camp whenever I possibly can. I have made my mark in politics as an unlikely Republican reformer. Of course, I have had to take on the Republican Party establishment. Not that the Democrats are too fond of me either.

I have a large, happy, but rather rambunctious family. I have been governor of my large northern state for less than two years. Nevertheless, I was the surprise pick to be the vice presidential candidate in a crucial national election.

Click here for the answer.

Who is running for President?

In 2004, Floridians had their choice of eight candidates for the nation's highest office, and 10 candidates in 2004. For the 2008 General Election Ballot, the Department of State certified 13 candidates running for President of the United States. Other than Senators John McCain and Barack Obama you can vote for James Harris of Florida's Socialist Workers Party, Ralph Nader of the Ecology Party of Florida, and former U.S. Representatives Bob Barr, a Libertarian, and Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party, among others. Click here for the full story.

Tina Fey as Sarah Palin

If you missed the SNL skit, click here.

© Copyright 2008 George LeMieux. All Rights Reserved.

Gunster, Yoakley & Stewart, P.A.

215 South Monroe Street, Suite 618 Tallahassee, Florida 32301 (850) 521-1980

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced Sunday that the United States Government would put into receivership, or “conservatorship”, the ailing quasi-public finance companies. Federal officials will use public dollars to prop up the troubled mortgage market. Click here to read more.

Topic 1: Amendments Five, Seven and Nine off the November Ballot

The Florida Supreme Court unanimously removed three potential constitutional amendments from the November ballot on Thursday on grounds they were misleading or beyond the authority of the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission (TBRC). All three measures were passed by the TBRC, a group convened every twenty years and empowered under the Florida Constitution to place amendments on the ballot.

The court affirmed an earlier ruling by Circuit Judge John C. Cooper holding Amendment 5, better known as the "Tax Swap", unconstitutional, finding the proposed amendment's title and summary as misleading as to the continued funding of education. The amendment proposed an estimated twenty-five percent cut from property tax bills by eliminating the portion of property taxes currently allocated for local education funding and replacing that funding with a sales tax increase.

The court also found unconstitutional Amendment 7, which proposed removing a ban on state funding for religious institutions, and Amendment 9 which would have modified a provision in the Constitution that requires uniformity in public education, so as to ensure the legality of vouchers.

Bottom Line: Friday marked the deadline for finalizing the November 4 General Election Ballot. There are now six amendments left for consideration by the voters. The Teachers Union was the bigger winner with the striking of Amendments 7 and 9, the realtors, who strongly supported Amendment 5, will have to go back to the drawing board.

Topic 2: Renewable Energy Pays

The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC), charged with ensuring safe and reliable utility services at fair prices, took the final step last week in allowing for customers who produce renewable energy to get credit at market prices for sending their excess power back to the state's electric grid.

Under the new rule, consumers are who are generating more energy than they are consuming, can send that energy back to the grid, from wind, solar or other renewables, and be reimbursed. Regulators in March approved a rule allowing the concept, but it took six months for the regulatory process to approve a "net meter" rule.

Bottom Line: Consumers choosing to outfit their properties with renewable or alternative energy capabilities will see their bills reduced by the net amount of energy they produce - good for consumers and good for the environment.

Topic 3: Republican National Convention Wrap-Up

The 2008 Republican National Convention concluded in the traditional fashion last Thursday with a motivating speech by Senator John McCain and thousands of balloons falling from the rafters of the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota. From the convention floor that evening, it was hard to tell that just a few days prior GOP leaders were debating whether or not to postpone the convention or cancel it entirely.

Despite the somewhat subdued gatherings earlier in the week, Republicans remained energized and accomplished the business of the convention - the formal nomination of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin, and the passage of the GOP Platform.

President Bush, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Florida Governor Charlie Crist are just of few of the Republican leaders who opted to remain in their home states to help with preparation for what looks to be the most serious set of storms in the past few years, rather than attending the convention.

A convention comes around once every four years, and as we saw with Senator Obama's address in 2004 and his quick rise within the Democratic Party, conventions are meaningful events in the lives of politicians and the party faithful. Long ago conventions were valuable because they determined a party's nominee. With the evolution of technology, 24-hour cable news and the Internet, conventions remain meaningful due to the career making media exposure and networking opportunities politicians can gain from the experience.

Bottom Line: Governor Crist made the right decision to stay in Florida for the convention, but on the political side, he certainly gave up a great deal to do so.

Topic 4: New Ozone Standards

Last week the Bradenton Herald ran an interesting piece on new federal ozone standards. Ten Florida counties, including Manatee, Sarasota, Bay, Duval, Escambia, Hillsborough, Lake, Orange, Pasco, and Santa Rosa counties currently exceed the new smog standard approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) last March.

The Florida Department of Environment Protection reports that overall, smog levels in the Sunshine State have decreased over the last 20 years. The new standard is 0.075 parts per million, reduced from 0.08 parts per million. Compliance with the standards is based on a three-year average.

Florida has until March 12, 2009, to make recommendations to the EPA regarding how to bring these areas into compliance. The EPA has one year to make a final determination on areas of non-compliance, using the most current data. The state will then develop a final plan to bring those areas into compliance.

Bottom Line: The Governor's Climate Change initiatives will become all the more important as these Florida counties seek to comply with the new standard.

Topic 5: The End of Faux Grouper

Those of you who work in state government may remember back in early 2007 when Eatz Cafeteria, the dining establishment at the Florida Capitol, was charged with serving grouper sandwiches that turned out to be an Asian catfish called ponga. The problem was not isolated to the fine dining of the Eatz Cafeteria. In fact, 17 restaurants in the Tampa Bay area were also citied with grouper substitution prompting a two-year investigation by the Attorney General's Office.

Last week, the Attorney General's office settled with Sysco Food Services - West Coast Florida, Inc, the company responsible for selling fake grouper to 14 of the 17 restaurants under investigation. Sysco must now take commercially reasonable steps to determine the species of a fish prior to marketing the product. Additionally, the company will donate $100,000 in food items to local charities and reimburse the state for $200,000 in investigation costs and related fees.

Bottom Line: Say what you mean, and mean what you say. Otherwise, it may cost you.

Sustainability Column

Tourism is the number one industry in the State of Florida, and the cost of energy is one of the top issues facing our country, so it's no surprise that when tourism concerns and energy costs merge, Florida listens.

The Florida Green Lodging Program recognizes hotels and other lodging facilities that implement a variety of conservation techniques entitled Best Management Practices (BMPs). These BMPs focus on conserving energy and water, and reducing waste and pollution.

Benefits of Green Lodge Designation 1. Ability to distinguish from non-participating hotels in ways that are meaningful to consumers. 2. Decreasing energy costs and overall operating costs by implementing energy saving techniques. 3. Positive public perception, good marketing and appeal to ever-increasing environmentally conscious guests.

Click here to read more.

Things to Watch

The Man Behind McCain

What changed in the McCain campaign from a dismal April and May to a hardnosed, disciplined June and July that has McCain now tied with Obama? Steve Schmidt, the Senior Advisor to McCain 2008, brought order and a plan to the once faltering campaign. Click here to read the Sunday Times piece.

The First Campaign of the 21st Century?

Are shifting demographics of age and race shaping up to make the 2008 presidential race a transformative election? Click here to learn more.

Has Palin Made Glasses Cool Again?

With the development of contact lenses and Lasik surgery, traditional eye glasses have become far less popular. That is until Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was tapped by Republican Presidential Nominee Senator John McCain. Click here for the Los Angeles Times report on glasses making a comeback.

Hang on to Your Campaign Buttons

Click here to read Florida Trend's story on John Clark of Tallahassee who once spent $11,000 on a campaign button from the 1924 presidential election.

Last week, Governor Crist named Charles T. Canady to the Florida Supreme Court, the first of four appointments to the Florida Supreme Court Governor Crist will make in his first term. Canady will fill the seat vacated by Justice Raoul Cantero, who currently holds an at-large seat on the Florida Supreme Court.

Earlier this year, Justices Kenneth Bell and Raoul Cantero announced their intent to retire from the Florida Supreme Court. Mandatory retirement at age 70 will necessitate the resignations of Justices Harry Lee Anstead and Charles Wells next year. Meaning for the first time in anyone's memory, Governor Crist will appoint a majority of the Court in his first term.

After interviewing 50 applicants, the Supreme Court's Judicial Nominating Commission presented the Governor with a list of five candidates eligible to replace Justice Cantero. Judge Canady is a graduate of Yale Law School, served in the Florida House, the United States Congress, and as Governor Jeb Bush’s General Counsel before he became an appellate judge. He is a life-long Florida resident from Lakeland, Florida.

Bottom Line: Governor Crist made a tremendous first pick to the Supreme Court. Charles Canady is one of those rare individuals who received support from liberal lions like Dexter Douglas, former General Counsel to Governor Chiles, and conservatives like Denis Baxley, President of Florida’s Christian Coalition. He will serve the court and the people well.

Topic 2: Fastest Growing Florida Companies

Inc. Magazine, a top magazine and web resource for entrepreneurs, recently released its annual list of the top 5,000 fastest growing private companies in the United States. 263 Florida companies made the list.

Washington, D.C. and New York City had the greatest numbers of companies in the top 5,000. Grand Rapids, Michigan scored the highest median revenue, followed by San Antonio, Texas, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. For growth by industry, energy companies shot up nearly 300 percent, while government services, IT services, and software also demonstrated significant growth.

For Florida companies, Foreclosure’s Daily of Largo had the highest showing with a ranking of 35, although the company’s specialty is a searchable database of Florida and North Carolina foreclosure cases –not exactly the business Florida would like to feature.

Here are the rest of the Florida companies in the top 200 by rank: 75 – Craig Technologies, Cape Canaveral, 79 – DesignerPlumbingOutlet.com, Palm Beach Gardens, 99 – American Bancard, Boca Raton, 115 – Advanced Interactive Sciences, Oldsmar, 129 – Meridian Partners Miami Beach, 160 – Agile Thought, Tampa, 167 – Ranon Construction, Deerfield Beach, 182 – Bridgevine, Vero Beach, 197 – BSN Boca Raton.

Bottom Line: This study, like the Fortune 100 survey we recently featured, shows Florida well behind states of similar size in the presence of large and emerging companies. Florida lawmakers should continue to work to create a friendlier business climate by cutting taxes and burdensome regulation.

Topic 3: Budget Woes

Last week state economists predicted that Florida could face a $3.5 billion budget hole for the 2009-2010 Budget, an increase from the prediction of a $2.2 billion budget gap earlier this month.

State economists also predicted a $1.8 billion shortage in the current fiscal year. A significant decline that will require the Governor to work with lawmakers to use reserves to shore up the $66 billion budget passed last session.

To avoid cuts in current year spending, the state will have to pull $1.8 billion from three sources. First, a law passed earlier this year allows the Governor to take $1 billion from the Lawton Chiles Endowment fund with the approval of the Legislative Budget Commission. Second, the Governor may take half of the Budget Stabilization Fund, which currently holds nearly $1.4 billion. Finally, the Governor can seek authorization to spend all or part of the $326 million cushion provided in this year's budget. The Legislative Budget Commission will consider recommendations by the Governor at a meeting on September 10.

Bottom Line: The Governor has asked state agencies to hold back 4 percent and is seeking to tap reserves to cover half of the current year’s deficit with more to be done later this year. Is the darkest hour right before the dawn? We can only hope.

Topic 4: Amendment Updates

Amendment 5 is off the ballot, pending appeal. The amendment proposes an estimated twenty-five percent cut from property tax bills by eliminating the portion of property taxes currently allocated for education funding and replacing it with a sales tax increase, eliminating some sales tax exemptions, and most likely further cuts to the state budget. A Mason-Dixon poll released last week shows that only 39 percent of Florida voters would support the measure should it appear on the ballot.

Amendment 2 defines marriage as the legal union of one man and one woman and prohibits any other legal union that is treated as marriage from being recognized in Florida. This amendment gained ballot access by petition – no small feat, and received 57 percent approval in the Mason-Dixon survey, just a few short of the 60 percent required for passage.

Amendment 7 would remove a provision that prohibits state funding for religious institutions, in this case focused on schools. Amendment 9 would re-characterize the requirement for a "uniform efficient, safe secure, and high quality system of free public schools" as a "minimum," and not an exclusive duty of the state, coupled with another initiative to require 65 percent of all school district funding be spent directly in the classroom. Both remain on the ballot pending the outcome of appeals filed by the Florida Education Association.

Bottom Line: There are eight amendments left on the 2008 General Election ballot. A 60 percent approval is a steep hill for any constitutional amendment and many face continuous court battles before and after ballot access and approval. The three additional appointments Governor Crist will make to the Florida Supreme Court over the next year are, therefore, all the more important.

Topic 5: Shortened Convention—Good for McCain?

Since the close of the Democratic Convention in Denver Thursday night, John McCain has dominated the media, first with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin, and most recently by his decision to focus on the impact of Hurricane Gustav. Read here to get one columnist’s view of why the hurricane, and McCain’s response to it, shows McCain in Charge.

Bottom Line: Stay tuned to the LeMieux Report this week as we will give you on the ground coverage from the Republican Convention.

Question of the Week

What impact will Allstate's settlement with the state insurance department have on the property insurance market?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Primary Election Results

Click here for a summary of election results from the Florida Primary, which took place last Tuesday. Notably, Tom Rooney won the Republican Primary in a highly contested three way race to unseat Congressman Tim Mahoney of Palm Beach Gardens. Rooney, a former Judge Advocate in the United States Army and an assistant Attorney General under then-Attorney General Crist, is trying to put the seat back in the Republican column.

Shopping Around

Does where you shop really impact who you vote for? If you prefer Target over Walmart does that mean you prefer Obama over McCain? Click here for this interesting piece by US News and World Report that surveys shoppers and their presidential preferences.

Why no Joe?

The New York Times reports that John McCain wanted to pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate, but was convinced by his team of advisors not to. Click here to read more about the process that resulted in Sarah Palin getting the call.

U.S News and World Report released its 2009 list of America's Best Colleges last week, and in a continuing trend no Florida institution ranked in the top 25. Florida barely made the top 50, with the University of Florida holding on for another year at 49. No other public university in Florida is ranked in the top 100 (University of Miami is 51, and Florida State is 102). Florida's rankings lag behind California, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, and basically any other state of size and economic significance.

The list has been complied annually for twenty-five years. U.S News and World Report surveys more than 1,400 schools in order to rank 262 schools in four tiers, giving numerical values to the top 133, those comprising the first and second tiers.

Bottom Line: Florida is the fourth, soon to be third, most populous state in the Union. Yet without serious reform to the state university system, Florida will continue to lack the intellectual infrastructure to support an advanced economy. For years state leaders have ignored higher education reform. The time is now to comprehensively review our state university system, build consensus around dramatic change, and begin to implement that change.

Topic 2: Minimum Prices in a Free Market?

Should manufacturers have the ability to set minimum pricing standards for products sold by independent retailers? (Think designer purses, sunglasses, watches, etc.) A 2007 ruling by the United States Supreme Court says yes, but only on a case-by-case basis.

Since 1911, when the U.S. Supreme Court first weighed in on the topic, punishing retailers for selling at discounted prices was an automatic violation of antitrust law. A recent Supreme Court ruling involving handbag sales at a Dallas store, Kay's Kloset, broke from the nearly 100 year old decision, potentially altering the face of U.S. discount retailing.

Some manufacturers favor minimum prices, to market the brand as higher end. Discounting can hurt future sales if consumers realize the product line is available for substantially less at a discount retailer. Retailers, on the other hand, want the flexibility to move merchandise and exploit the outlet/discount market.

Bottom Line: Setting prices on non-essential products is the right of the manufacturer. If the price is artificially high, consumers won't purchase the product. Congress should stay out of the issue and let the marketplace work it out.

Topic 3: Nine bid to Cover Florida

Last week was the deadline for companies to submit proposals to participate in the new Cover Florida Program.

The legislation, championed by Governor Crist and passed by the Florida Legislature, will provide health insurance options for nearly 4 million uninsured Floridians. The plan leverages competition in the existing market by partnering with private insurance companies to create innovative, low cost health insurance products. These products are required to cost $150 per month or less, while covering a range of primary and emergency services. Cover Florida is voluntary, with no mandates on individuals or employers to participate. The plan is designed to focus on primary and preventive care to discourage unnecessary and costly visits to the emergency room.

Companies submitting proposals include: American Management Advisors, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida, Celtic Insurance Company, Florida Health Care Plan, JMH Health Plan, Medica Health Plans of Florida, Total Health Choice, United Health Care and Universal Healthcare.

Bottom Line: Details of the proposals will be released to the public on September 8. Recently critics have suggested that the $150 per month price point will not allow providers to offer adequate services; however, during this time of limited resources, the Cover Florida program is the best chance to provide coverage to Florida's vast uninsured population.

Topic 4: Tropical Storm Fay

Coverage of Tropical Storm Fay dominated TV, print media, radio and the Web this past week as the storm crisscrossed the state causing flooding, wind damage and tornadoes. Though it may have seemed to be purely a rain event, as we have seen in hurricane seasons past, severe storms affect business, law and politics in the Sunshine State.

On the business end, Floridians heading out to stores to stock up on supplies could provide a mild boost to some sectors of the economy, while tourism took a hit approaching the key Labor Day travel weekend. Construction-related businesses should see some increase in business as Floridians seek to dry out, repair, and get back to work.

Lawyers were buzzing at the Attorney General's office last week addressing legal issues surrounding Fay. Attorney General Bill McCollum activated the state's Price Gouging Hotline. Floridians can call 1-866-9-NO-SCAM to report evidence of price gouging in their area.

For politicians on the ballot Fay came at a bad time, especially for those with a primary election this Tuesday. Early voting was suspended in some counties and many candidates, from the local level on up to Senators McCain and Obama, were forced to cancel fundraisers.

Bottom Line: Fay claimed 11 victims in Florida and caused millions of dollars of damage. With several months to go in hurricane season, she serves as a reminder to families, government and business to stay prepared for the very real threat of a serious storm. But, every cloud has a silver lining. Florida, badly in need of water, benefited from significant rain fall from Key West to Jacksonville to Pensacola, and all places in between.

Topic 5: Convention Preview

The Democrat National Convention is set to start today (Monday) at the Pepsi Center and Invesco Field in Denver, Colorado. The Republican National Convention kicks off next Monday, September 1, at the Excel Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. See below for a preview of the Democrat speakers.

Monday, August 25, 2008 - Theme: One Nation

Speakers include: Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House; Claire McCaskill, Missouri Senator; and Jesse Jackson Jr, Illinois Congressman, among others. Headliner: Michelle Obama. 

Tuesday, August 26, 2008 - Theme: Renewing America's Promise

Speakers include: Steny Hoyer, House Majority Leader and Rahm Emanuel, House Majority Whip, among others. Headliner: Hillary Clinton, New York Senator. Keynote Address: Mark Warner, former Virginia Governor and Senate candidate.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008 - Theme: Securing America's Future

Speakers include: Robert Wexler, Florida Congressman; Bill Richardson, New Mexico Governor; Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader; and former President Bill Clinton, among others. Headliner: Joe Biden, Delaware Senator and Vice Presidential Nominee.

Thursday, August 28, 2008 - Theme: Change You Can Believe In

Speakers include: Bill Ritter, Colorado Governor. Headliner: Senator Barack Obama accepts the nomination as the Democrat Party's candidate for President of the United States.

Question of the Week

I have heard Senator McCain and Senator Obama discussing their positions on whether to "make permanent" or "roll back" certain tax cuts that were enacted during President George W. Bush's administration. What tax cuts are the senators talking about? Should I consider engaging in any tax planning to take advantage of the current lower tax rates?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

Campaign Finance Reports

Click here for the On 3 PR summary of the final campaign finance reports before the Aug. 26th primary.

How do you fix Public Education?

School on Saturday and in the summer, fire bad teachers and pay good teachers six figure salaries-these are just some of the ideas Michelle Rhee is bringing to the District of Columbia school system. Click here to read more.

A Campaign Unfiltered by the Press

How did the Obama campaign announce that Joe Biden would run on the Democratic ticket? By text message at 3 AM. Read here the Sunday New York Times Story that accounts how the Obama campaign bypasses the press through new technology.

Not just for Governors and Presidents

Chiefs of Staff have largely been reserved to high ranking elected officials, but no longer. Read more in the Washington Post's story on how the uber wealthy are establishing "family offices" and employing chiefs of staff to run their financial, political and social portfolios.

What is Congress up to?

Not much. Just a few short months ago, we were asking why the Florida Legislature had time to debate truck nuts and baggy pants when the state faced serious challenges. You may think things run slow in Tallahassee, but they look lighting fast compared to Washington. Click here to read the Wall Street Journal's take on the 110th Congress, a legislative body that has produced fewer laws than any Congress in the last 20 years, but had time to recognize watermelons and the Idaho Potato Commission's 70th anniversary.

Presidential Debates

First Presidential Debate: Date: Friday, September 26. Location: The University of Mississippi Oxford, Mississippi. Moderator: Jim Lehrer, Executive Editor and Anchor of the NewsHour, PBS. Topic: National Security, Foreign Policy.

Vice Presidential Debate: Date: Thursday, October 2. Location: Washington University St. Louis, Missouri. Moderator: Gwen Ifill, Senior Correspondent, The NewsHour and Moderator and Managing Editor, Washington Week, PBS. Topic: TBD once both VP candidates are selected.

Second Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting - Date: Tuesday, October 7. Location: Belmont University Nashville, Tennessee. Moderator: Tom Brokaw. Special Correspondent, NBC News. Topic: Questions from audience and Internet.

Third Presidential Debate: Date: Wednesday, October 15. Location: Hofstra University Hempstead, New York. Moderator: Bob Schieffer, CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent, and Host, Face the Nation. Topic: Domestic and Economic Policy.

Amendment 5 is off the ballot, pending appeal. Circuit Judge John C. Cooper found the ballot summary and title of Amendment 5 unconstitutional, and ordered the Department of State to remove the amendment from the 2008 general election ballot.

The amendment proposes an estimated twenty-five percent cut from property tax bills by eliminating the portion of property taxes currently allocated for education funding. The decrease of an estimated $9 billion in school funding would require lawmakers to impose at least a one cent sales tax increase, eliminate some of the 246 sales tax exemptions currently found in state law, and most likely make further cuts to the state budget.

The court found the portion of the tax swap amendment purporting to hold funding for education harmless misleading, reasoning the language failed to tell voters that education money would be held harmless for just one year, while the portion of property taxes set aside for schools would be eliminated forever.

When removing amendments from the ballot, the standard of review calls on the courts to exercise extreme restraint, intervening only when the law has been clearly violated. At the same time, the court must ensure that the title and summary properly reflect the content and purpose of the amendment.

Bottom Line: On Friday, the state filed an appeal of the trial court's decision. Governor Crist expressed support for the appeal in order to leave the decision to cut property taxes for homes and businesses to the people.

Topic 2: Revenue Reductions

Just six weeks after the 2008-09 State Budget took effect on July 1, state economists predicted another decline in revenue, this time $1.8 billion in the current fiscal year. The decline will require the Governor to work with lawmakers to use reserves to shore up the $66 billion budget passed last session. Estimators also made a revenue prediction for next year that will leave the state with $2.2 billion less to spend.

To avoid cuts in current year spending, the state will have to pull $1.8 billion from three sources. First, a law passed earlier this year allows the Governor to take $1 billion from the Lawton Chiles Endowment fund with the approval of the Legislative Budget Commission. The Lawton Chiles Endowment holds $2.3 billion generated from tobacco funds. The investment and interest income of the fund are spent on programs for Florida's children and elderly, while the principle is untapped.

Second, the Governor may take half of the Budget Stabilization Fund, which currently holds nearly $1.4 billion. Finally, the Governor can seek authorization to spend all or part of the $326 million cushion provided in this year's budget.

Bottom Line: The burst of the housing bubble combined with rising fuel and food prices is casting a shadow over the Sunshine State. As reported in last week's LeMieux Report, recent improvements in the dollar, the stock market, and the decline in oil prices holds out some promise that the national economy is starting to recover Whether Florida has seen the worst of it remains to be seen.

Topic 3: Who Really Elects the President?

By Florida law, it's the 27 electors selected by the political party whose nominee wins the popular vote. That is, if party leaders select a slate of electors, have that list certified by the Secretary of State, and submit the slate to the Governor by September 1, 2008. 

This weekend, at its summer quarterly board meeting, the executive committee of the Republican Party of Florida voted on and passed a slate of 27 electors. In an earlier attempt to pass its slate of electors, the Democrat Party failed to gain a quorum and now must review party rules to determine how and when another meeting can be called to re-visit the issue. With the Democratic Convention set to start next week in Denver, the time for the FDP to get its list formally approved, certified and submitted is wearing thin.

Bottom Line: This has been the most fascinating presidential election in a generation, evolving over the last two years from our state legislature first considering whether or not to move the Florida Primary forward to the less than 80-day final stretch ahead of us. I am honored to have been chosen to serve as both a delegate to the Republican national convention and as one of Florida's 27 Republican electors. Look for updates and insights on this most amazing race in the weeks to come.

Topic 4: Accelerate Florida

Last week Florida's Agency for Workforce Innovation released employment numbers for July that show a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.1 percent, up half a point since June and 2 points over last year. The current unemployment rate represents 572,000 jobless, out of a labor force of 9,333,000, with 96,800 jobs lost in the past year. Nearly 80,000 of the lost jobs were in construction alone.

Prior to Friday's announcement, Governor Crist unleashed a new economic stimulus package entitled "Accelerate Florida: Extending Florida's Economic Horizons." The program calls on state agencies to identify construction and capital outlay projects that have been funded, but not yet started. Agencies will then review the status of these projects in order to determine what actions can be taken to quickly launch these projects toward completion, and therefore stimulate the economy.

Bottom Line: Now is the time to fund public works projects to keep Floridians employed, and keep our economy moving. K-12, community college and university construction, road, water and other infrastructure projects put Floridians to work, and therefore create wages that can be spent at Florida businesses. Lessening and removing barriers to get these projects going is the right thing to do.

Topic 5: Allstate Agreement

The battle between Allstate Insurance Company and the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) appears over. Earlier this year, OIR enforced a ban prohibiting the company from writing new policies for failure to provide documents during a state investigation. The agency was investigating why the company's rates had not dropped following the insurance reforms passed in early 2007.

Allstate signed an affidavit certifying it had fully complied with the state's request for documents. In response, the state lifted the ban with the understanding that a future failure to produce documents would bring another ban.

After a detailed investigation into the company's pricing practices, Allstate agreed on Friday to reduce rates by 5.6 percent in 30 days, pay a $5 million fine, forgive a $175 million loan to Florida subsidiaries and add 100,000 policies in three years.

Bottom Line: This is a good resolution for Florida's insurance market, and for Allstate's policy holders. OIR was right to insist on a full inspection of Allstate's records. Allstate was right to finally settle the matter, lower their rates and start writing again in Florida.

Question of the Week

How do I avoid getting sued for overtime pay?

Click here for the answer.

Things to Watch

New Supreme Court Justices

In less than 60 days, the Governor will select two of the four new justices for Florida's Supreme Court. After interviewing 50 applicants, the Supreme Court's Judicial Nominating Commission presented the Governor with a list of five candidates eligible to replace Justice Raoul Cantero, who currently holds an at-large seat, and thee candidates to replace Justice Kenneth Bell who covers North Florida. The commission has the option of presenting as many as six names for each seat. To read the names, click here.

Is Jon Stewart the Most Trusted Man in Journalism?

Maybe not the most trusted, but how about tied for fourth with Dan Rather, Tom Brokaw, Anderson Cooper and Brian Williams? Read the Sunday New York Times' piece to learn how the once outcast faux journalist now has real impact on American political thought.

The Most Consequential Election in American History

Every election cycle someone opines that the current race is most important race in American history. Kenneth Walsh has a different view. Was it 1800 when Jefferson's win ensured a two party system, or Lincoln's reelect in 1864? Click here to read more.

Who do Business Leaders Support for President? Read the Sunday New York Times piece by clicking here.

How to Tax Short Sales

When you sell property the law is clear that you pay taxes based upon the price of the property...or is it? What happens when you sell for less than what you owe on the mortgage, a transaction known as a "short sale". Click here to read the Tampa Tribune's take on the issue.

Amendment 5 is off the ballot, pending appeal. Circuit Judge John C. Cooper found the ballot summary and title of Amendment 5 unconstitutional, and ordered the Department of State to remove the amendment from the 2008 general election ballot.

The amendment proposes an estimated twenty-five percent cut from property tax bills by eliminating the portion of property taxes currently allocated for education funding. The decrease of an estimated $9 billion in school funding would require lawmakers to impose at least a one cent sales tax increase, eliminate some of the 246 sales tax exemptions currently found in state law, and most likely make further cuts to the state budget.

The court found the portion of the tax swap amendment purporting to hold funding for education harmless misleading, reasoning the language failed to tell voters that education money would be held harmless for just one year, while the portion of property taxes set aside for schools would be eliminated forever.

When removing amendments from the ballot, the standard of review calls on the courts to exercise extreme restraint, intervening only when the law has been clearly violated. At the same time, the court must ensure that the title and summary properly reflect the content and purpose of the